RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Two of them have Biden ahead by four, one by five, one by six, and then there’s today’s Trafalgar poll putting him two points behind. Polling. In response, 46.5% said they would vote for Trump; 45.9% said they would vote for Biden. Trafalgar Group's poll in Michigan also favors Trump by 2.5 points, whereas research firm Ipsos anticipates a 10-point win by Biden for 16 electoral votes in the Great Lake State. RealClearPolitics’s average has Biden leading by 2.3 points. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga pledged to work together to advance the rule of law and democracy after a day of discussions about how best to tackle the rise of China. The current RealClearPolitics average in Florida shows Biden up by 1.6 points. CNSNews.com is a division of the Media Research Center. 2016 presidential polls and forecasting sites (UpShot, Predictwise, FiveThrityEight) in Clinton vs. Trump were wrong in many cases. When it came to polling in 2016, it was swing states that pollsters had the most trouble nailing down. The White House reversed plans not to raise the refugee cap after being met by strong criticism from Democrats and vowed to roll out the new number next month. In other swing states, Trafalgar’s polls actually give Trump the advantage. In response, 47.5% said Biden and 46.4% said Trump. Trafalgar has Trump up 1 in Mich. T was the ONLY pollster to say Trump would win Pa. and Mich. in 16. In the latest polls, in Michigan, Trump leads Biden, 46.6 percent to 45.2 percent, and in Wisconsin, the lead is 46.2 percent to 45.4 percent. The RealClearPolitics average shows Biden leading by 3.1 points in the state. As for the 2020 race, Cahaly stands alone in predicting a Trump victory. “We ended up having an incredible year,” Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s head pollster, recently told National Review. A Miami nurse was charged for allegedly threatening to kill Vice President Kamala Harris after federal agents were made aware of videos depicting the woman ranting about her disdain for the Biden administration. Trafalgar doesn't consider the massive swing in voter participation from the 2018 election. Methodology: The FT poll tracker is based on Real Clear Politics (RCP) data and checks for new polls at least once an hour as polls are added by RCP staff.. A Republican who works for venture capitalist Peter Thiel is mulling a campaign for the Senate in Arizona, where the GOP is targeting Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. The mission of the Media Research Center is to The latest poll from the Trafalgar Group has come out and it shows Trump adding to his small lead but a lead nonetheless. Trafalgar Poll Michigan: Trump 46.5%, Biden 45.9% | CNSNews “The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race,” Graham said. That stands in stark contrast to the current RealClearPolitics average, which shows Biden leading by 7.9 points nationally. And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the Electoral College. Trafalgar Group publishes polls conducted by phone concerning races for federal office. US Technology & Cybersecurity News & Policies, Florida nurse and mother charged after allegedly planning to kill Kamala Harris, High school quiz suggests Americans are more hesitant to 'take responsibility' for slavery than Holocaust, Michigan to expand access to promising COVID antibody treatment amid surge, 'The officer drew their handgun instead of their Taser': Quotes of the week, Infections of younger people indicate UK variant surge in US, Michigan's drug overdose deaths increased by at least 16% in first six month of 2020 compared to prior year, Biden defends pushing other bills before gun control after Indianapolis shooting, Biden uses meeting with Japanese PM to show focus on China threat, Top Senate Democrat faults Biden for blocking ‘vetted refugees currently waiting’ to enter US, After liberal backlash, White House says Biden will increase refugee cap, Wisconsin Senate leader frames legal marijuana as job safety issue, Trump's exit has not diminished enthusiasm of Democratic donors, 'Disgraceful': Democrats blast Biden for keeping refugee cap at level set by Trump, Biden, who called Trump-era refugee cap ‘immoral,’ was going to leave Trump-era refugee cap in place, Republican associate of Peter Thiel eyeing Arizona Senate race. Looks like in Michigan this could be paying off. According to PoliZette, the firm is noteworthy for "using psychology combined with normal polling science" in its work. So here we go again! Trafalgar's 2020 Michigan poll assumes voter turnout demographics for 2020 will be identical to 2016. In Michigan , the pollster has Trump leading Biden, 46.5% to 45.9%, a slim 0.6-point edge. In Pennsylvania, the same question was asked to 1,041 likely voters Oct. 13-15. It first publicly released polls in 2016. Guess who those other 5% actually voted for. Anyway - Trafalgar is known for one thing... getting Michigan right in 2016. Pennsylvania Statewide Survey, Trafalgar Group. Trafalgar was one of the few polling firms in 2016 that predicted Trump would win four years ago and they are seeing it the same way as we stand on the day before the election. The Trafalgar Group, which was the only nonpartisan outlet in 2016 to find Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Election Day, shows Trump with small leads in … Polling data for the 2016 US presidential election. Michigan Statewide Poll, Trafalgar Group. Since successfully predicting the result of the 2016 presidential election, its polling has been less accurate. One pollster that seemed to have its fingers on the pulse of the election in 2016 swing states was Trafalgar Group. Trafalgar shows similar results in Pennsylvania, where its more recent poll has Biden leading Trump, 47.4% to 45.1%, a 2.3-point edge for Biden. “The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 surprise showing. The final IBD/TIPP poll of the 2016 race saw Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, 45% to 43.4%, a 1.6-point advantage. In their Michigan poll, conducted Oct. 11 -14, Trafalgar asked 1,025 likely voters, "If the election for President were held today, how would you vote?". The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. Trafalgar is standing by itself again in 2020, with its polls showing Trump ahead or narrowly behind in key battleground states. Trafalgar poll: Trump now leads by two — in Michigan. re: Trafalgar State Polls: Michigan - Trump +2 | Florida - Trump +3 | Arizona - Trump +3 Posted. Michigan is reporting its second consecutive year of decreasing drug overdose deaths overall. In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. Polling has had Biden ahead in Michigan, one of the three 'blue wall' states Trump won in 2016, for months - however, a late-breaking Trafalgar poll showed Trump up by 2 points. The poll suggests that Trump is leading Biden in Michigan by almost two points, 46.5% to 45.9%. That poll was conduct Nov. 1 to Nov. 4..@stevesingiser Trafalgar: 77% white, 13% Latino, 3% black 2012 Exits: 64% white, 19% Latino, 9% black — David Williams (@dznyc) November 6, 2016. Copyright © 2021, Media Research Center. The current RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania has Biden leading by 3.7 points. Trafalgar says it succeeds where others fail by accounting for “social-desirability bias,” what some have called the “shy Trump voter.” Trafalgar says it has methods of getting past that bias, giving the public a more accurate look at what’s really happening. (CNS News) -- The Trafalagar Group polling firm, the only group to foresee a Donald Trump win in Michigan in 2016, and one of the few groups to forecast a Trump win in Pennsylvania in 2016, currently places Trump slightly ahead of Joe Biden in Michigan and Florida, and gives Biden a slight lead in Pennsylvania. “Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate.”. “If it all happened right now, my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high 270s, low 280s," he said. Trafalgar predicted Nelson(D) to win in 2018 Florida - he didn't Trafalgar predicted Cruz(R) to win by 9 in 2018 Texas - he won by 2 Trafalgar predicted McSally(R) to win Arizona - she didn't At a time when the polling industry was crushed by its collectively incompetence, the praise for Trafalgar continued: TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.”. It’s a very good sign because they were the only pollsters to get that right in ’16. create a media culture in America where truth and liberty flourish. The company has tended to produce polls that show more support for Trump than other pollsters do. Helmut Norpoth, a Stonybrook University political science professor, wrote before the election, “It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election … Young voters increased turnout by 79% in 2018, a … IBD/TIPP’s Oct. 21 poll showed similar results, with Biden leading with 48.5% to Trump's 46%, a new high for the president. Trump ended up winning many states that polls showed him trailing in, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The IBD/TIPP poll, which is released daily, had Biden leading Trump, 48.1% to 45.8%, nationally on Oct. 20, a 2.3-point advantage for Biden. And we went from doing a little bit of polling on the side to that [being] our primary business in about 24 hours. The week that was was dominated by a tragic incident in Minnesota in which a police officer "accidentally" shot and killed Daunte Wright, a 20-year-old black man, once again leading to debate and discourse over police brutality and race in the United States. All Rights Reserved. Trafalgar Group, the right-leaning Republican pollster who accurately forecasted Donald Trump’s upset wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election – and in the race itself – recently released a shocker. also has him up in Fla. “Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%,” Graham said. But elections in the United States are decided by the Electoral College, not a national popular vote. Then the RCP Michigan poll average shows Biden ahead by 8.6 percentage points. Its latest Florida poll has Trump leading Biden, 48.4% to 46.1%, or 2.3 points. In Michigan, the pollster has Trump leading Biden, 46.5% to 45.9%, a slim 0.6-point edge. ... Michigan: Trafalgar was the … Michigan factors prominently into Trump’s message on trade, as he ended NAFTA with the renegotiated USMCA and levied heavy tariffs against … We got Michigan right. Especially since they also have Republican John James leading incumbent Gary Peters for Peters’s Senate seat. “I’ve got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel because what’s in your heart is going to be what’s on that ballot,” Cahaly said. Donald Trump is no longer president, but the Democratic money machine he fueled is still burning strong, with incumbent Senate Democrats posting strong first-quarter fundraising numbers to begin the 2022 cycle. Michigan intends to expand access to promising yet underutilized antibody treatments as hospitalizations and test positivity rates in the state soar. Despite incorrectly calling the national race, IBD/TIPP was rated as one of the two most accurate pollsters during the 2016 election in a Washington Post analysis, only being bested by McClatchy/Marist polls. on 10/25/20 at 6:26 pm to SlowFlowPro. We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016. Trafalgar was the only pollster in 2016 to accurately predict that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Two of the more accurate pollsters of the 2016 election see a tightening race as the 2020 election hits its final stretch. In fact, today’s numbers feel a lot like the final weeks of the 2016 polling in Michigan. education organization operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, and contributions to the MRC are tax-deductible. It’s a race again in Michigan. The last five polls taken there have seen that lead cut in half. The MRC is a research and In his Pennsylvania poll, Trafalgar predicted that 83 percent of the electorate would be white, 10 percent would be black and 4 percent would be Latino. It was the only polling operation to show correctly that Trump was leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that helped push Trump to victory. In response, 48.4% said they would vote for Trump; 46.1% said they would vote for Biden. The recent IBD/TIPP polling once again sees a similar trend in enthusiasm. election 2016 exit polls exit polls are surveys of a small percentage of voters taken after they leave their voting place. (CNS News) -- The Trafalgar Group polling firm, which was the only group to accurately predict a Donald Trump win in Michigan in 2016, and one of only a few firms that predicted a Trump 2016 win in Pennsylvania, gives Trump a slight lead today -- Election Day -- over Democrat Joe Biden in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.”, With the race getting so narrow down the homestretch, Graham questioned whether the results were “shades of 2016.”, “In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump,” Graham said. A journalist issued an urgent plea on Friday seeking help to find Val Broeksmit, the adopted son of the late Deutsche Bank executive William Broeksmit who has cooperated with investigators looking into the bank. Complementing that assessment, Trafalgar Group’s latest Michigan poll separates Biden and Trump by just one point, but the NYT/Sienna poll has Biden up by 11! That’s the first time James has led in any poll all year. “Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter,” wrote Jed Graham of Investor’s Business Daily, the publication behind the poll. The pollster’s latest Wisconsin poll shows Biden leading, 47.6% to 46.3%, a slim 1.3-point advantage dwarfed by the current RealClearPolitics average that shows Biden up 6.3 points. They've also released recent polls from former "blue-wall" states in the Rust Belt that used to deliver for Democrat presidential nominees on election day, but famously went for then-candidate Donald Trump in 2016. by TigerCruise. MI Presidential Poll Donald Trump 46.6% Joe Biden 45.2% Jo Jorgensen 3.2% Another Party Candidate 1.4% Undecided 3.6% See Report Here Both polls were taken from Aug. 14 to Aug. 23 before, during, and immediately after the Democratic National Convention. A new poll by the Trafalgar group shows President Trump holding a thin lead in the Ste of Michigan. The Trafalgar Group Poll of Georgia claims it is the only poll that correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. I try to give Trafalgar every benefit of the doubt after its stunning success in 2016 and 2018 but I’m a leeeetle skeptical of this one. Trafalgar poll in Michigan - Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group ® Biden 45, Trump 47 Trump +2 Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters Trafalgar Group ® Peters 4 MI Oct 29, 2020 Presidential Poll TOTALS (with leans) Donald Trump 49.1% Joe Biden 46.6% Jo Jorgensen 2.1% Someone Else 1.2% Undecided 1.1% See Report Here In other swing states, Trafalgar’s polls actually give Trump the advantage. “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right. President Joe Biden’s apparent retention of the refugee cap set by former President Donald Trump has halted the admission of “vetted refugees currently waiting in the system,” according to a senior Senate Democrat. Data from some states shows that children and young adults are accounting for a larger proportion of coronavirus cases during the current surge, another sign that the more transmissible U.K. variant is becoming the dominant strain in the United States. President Joe Biden on Friday defended pushing for coronavirus and infrastructure spending legislation over gun control reform after a FedEx employee shot dead eight former co-workers in Indianapolis overnight, just the latest mass shooting since he took office. Trafalgar also shows Trump ahead, 47.8% to 46.1%, in its most recent North Carolina poll, a 1.7-point edge. A Charlotte, North Carolina, public high school teacher’s reading quiz included a discussion question with an answer that suggested Americans are more hesitant to acknowledge the horrors of the Holocaust than those of slavery. However, they missed "bigly" on many other elections. But RealClearPolitics's average says the opposite, showing Biden leading by 7.2 points. According to the Trafalgar Group polls, Trump leads Biden 47 to 45 percent in Michigan. “IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.”. Media thought Johnson was going to get 5-8% of the vote in 2016, I think he ended up with 3%. Democrats and liberal organizations lambasted President Joe Biden after the White House said he would not immediately raise the number of refugees admitted this year from the historic low set by the Trump administration. The Trafalgar Group was the only outfit that called the Keystone State for Trump in 2016, and its most recent poll gives Trump just under a one-point … In the Florida statewide poll, conducted Oct. 11-13, Trafalgar asked 1,051 likely voters the same question asked in Michigan. While Trump won the election, he lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points. And since then, that’s what we’ve been doing.”. MICHIGAN. The Trafalgar Group was somewhat prolific on Monday, the day before the election, releasing surveys in Florida (Trump ahead by 4 points), Michigan (Trump ahead by 2 points) and Georgia (Trump ahead by 7 points). The Republican leader said there's not enough votes in the Wisconsin Senate to legalize marijuana. Why? In Arizona, Trafalgar has Trump ahead, 47.8% to 43.8%, a 4-point lead. “Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton It’s final polls. Trafalgar has Trump winning in Michigan. 47 to 45 percent in Michigan Trump victory recent North Carolina poll, conducted Oct.,. His new high-water mark of 45.8 % Trafalgar Group the only pollster to say Trump defeat... Its second consecutive year of decreasing drug overdose deaths overall as the 2020 race, Cahaly stands alone in a! Poll has Trump leading Biden, 46.5 % to 45.9 % its latest poll. 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