That's a solid majority, but it's only a fraction of the 13 point advantage Bush had in 2000. Figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show they make up 30 percent of the country's confirmed coronavirus patients. Migration is also having an impact in other battleground states like Texas and Georgia. Worryingly for Republicans, these new arrivals have brought their voting habits and blue policies with them. Their data says that overall for the South, in 2012 the mix of migrants was 34 percent from the Northeast, 31 percent from the Midwest, and 35 percent from the Mountains, Plains and Pacific Coast. ", Welcome to the Great Migration 2.0, one that may give the Democrats an electoral advantage that could last for generations to come. Updated 21:31, 24-Sep-2020 CGTN Share . And finally, we studied migration patterns by age from a database at the University of Wisconsin. Of course, migration cuts both ways. Before California was the solidly Democratic state we know it to be today, the state’s Republican Party was a force to be reckoned with. Hank Gilman is a Newsweek editor and columnist. Only three red states made the list; Kentucky, Utah, and Kansas. NCSU's Morris says "The vector is clear but the timing is not. The killing has further exacerbated the grievances of African Americans who are disproportionately afflicted by the coronavirus pandemic. All but 10 states 1 1 Plus one congressional district in Nebraska had voted consistently Democratic or Republican for (at least) the prior four consecutive presidential elections. "More liberal Californians have been moving into Nevada and Arizona that are changing those more Democratic. Even before the outbreak, states such as Nevada and Arizona saw this transition. Tippett has prepared a forecast of North Carolina demographics through 2035. In 2016, Republican support was just under 60%, at 59.3%. To continue reading login or create an account. Since its admission to statehood in 1912, Arizona has voted Democratic slightly over 30 percent of the time but over the years the structure of its electoral politics has been changing. According to Bloomberg, the court-ordered plan finalized at the end of 2019 is expected to give Democrats a "strong chance" to add two House seats. Evidence is growing that an exodus is underway in California. But this year's election looks to set itself apart in the annals of unpredictability, as states that have been solidly red for the past few decades are turning blue. Of course, that's an extreme and unlikely example—not everyone moving in or out is a voter, and it's likely both migrants are a mix of Republicans and Democrats. "Asheville sure isn't the same as it used to be and I think those who have moved here over the last 20-40 years are at the core of that change," says Able Allen, who covers the City Council for the local newspaper, the Mountain Xpress. Together the two streams of migrants create jobs that attract more domestic migrants, like those who work in industries like construction and services, including many Hispanics. The Blue states are colonizing the big, electoral college rich Red states—and there's little those Red states, and the GOP, can do about it. But Ken Johnson of University of New Hampshire says those net migration numbers may understate the churn in the electorate. Posted by Buckeye Backer on 2/11/20 at 9:11 am to kingbob Yes, but due to aging populations and migration patterns, states like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and maybe even NH or NJ could be turning red. Why are RED states turning B:UE? Behind U.S. elections: Why are deep red states turning blue? That sounds like good news for Republicans. For a good case study of this trend, let's take a look at a state many political scientists see as the next red state to tip: North Carolina. Midwest migrants skewed slightly Democratic; those from the Pacific Coast very slightly Republican; and from the Mountain/Plains states strongly Republican. You have 4 free articles remaining this month, Sign-up to our daily newsletter for more articles like this + access to 5 extra articles. To understand what's really going on, we spoke to a dozen experts and dove deep into the data. Oct 29, 2020. You have New Yorkers who retired to Florida. !LTC Allen West explains why President Trump is resonating with minority communities. What we found is not great news for the Grand Old Party. Many are mid-career professionals and new graduates attracted to the Triangle (the Research Triangle Park area, which includes Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill) or the massive banking industry in Charlotte. They're taking over the places that have plenty of sunshine and (usually) great beaches: Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Can he do it again? The senate race is between incumbent Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Cal Cunningham. Today, these terms are used to refer to which party a state … Between 2007 to 2016, among 1 million Californians – some 2.5 percent of its population, most relocated to Texas, according to statistics from California's Legislative Analyst's Office. That's changed. McKee and Teigen analyzed the 2008 and 2012 presidential election results in North Carolina by voter tabulation district (the voting equivalent of a precinct) and found that the single most important factor in predicting voting outcome was migration. "Most Americans saw the video of the George Floyd murder and sympathized with him and generally with African Americans and broadly with minorities," said Rae, also a Fulbright Scholar in China from 2017 to 2018. How to Turn Your Red State Blue. Swapping the Rust Belt for the Sun Belt is a bad deal for Republicans—46 votes from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan for 109 (North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Texas.). Stay Tuned. Now it's blue. Political scientists believe the combination of millennials, African-Americans and Hispanics is a toxic mix for Republicans. Multiculturalism needs more progressive policies to protect. As Brookings' Frey says, "Big cities are magnets. Blue state exodus could flip the political map upside down, turning red states purple. And there aren't as many vulnerable blue states left to flip as there are red states that could potentially become blue. That kind of puts President Donald Trump in a gridlock because he can't sympathize so much without losing his white working-class base. For these migrants, good weather is a bonus. The guessing game isn't an exact science – many of these experts had projected a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016. Do it anyway. That's only a 1 percent change in population, but it's a potentially much bigger turnover in the electorate. In the Name of John Lewis, Let Us Restore the Voting Rights Act, How Trump Could Turn Troubled 2020 Election into an Unprecedented Disaster, Outdoor Movies Around the World with Cinematic Views, Why Doomsday Prepping Isn't Pessimistic—It's Practical, Will & Grace's Sean Hayes on His New Podcast 'Smartless'. To go along with the colors, the terms “red state” and “blue state” were popularized by anchorman Tim Russert during and immediately after the 2000 election. South Carolina U.S. Senate candidate Jaime Harrison: Can he take down long-time favorite Sen. Lindsey Graham? Lag or no lag, the change is here in North Carolina: In addition to migration and the growing Hispanic population, there's also generational change. Real Clear Politics says the most recent Fox News poll (as of June 25) shows Biden up in all five states, but it's five months between that finding and the first Tuesday in November. "The electorate lags demographics. But this year's election looks to set itself apart in the annals of unpredictability, as states that have been solidly red for the past few decades are turning blue. Idaho is another state known for having a Republican winning streak. Here's what is clear: We're likely to see the blue wave crest in the national and statewide races first. How overwhelmingly? Highlights. A purple state refers to a swing state where both Democratic and Republican candidates receive strong support without an overwhelming majority of support for either party. Joe Biden: Are the Sun Belt demographics now in his favor? The gender gap is old news. Take a look at Los Angeles. But while the rate of migration may decrease, don't expect to see any changes in the demographic mix of movers.". Part of the reason why they’re leaving is partly a response to the blue state policies that are keeping those states so expensive, and so practically unlivable, particularly for families. Back when North Carolina was Senator Jesse Helms territory, it was a rural state composed of people who were born there. (Brian) Kemp won in Georgia by a fourth of what Trump won by. Electoral Map: Blue or Red States Since 2000. By Fox News, January 16th, 2020. Professor Seth C. McKee, now at Oklahoma State, and Jeremy M. Teigen of Ramapo College have analyzed migration to the South and its impact on voting. Don’t Look Now, but the Mountain West Is Turning Blue ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW From the 1980s until recently, Republicans were as ubiquitous in the Rockies as Coors. Usually there's a decrease in migration during an economic downturn. Prop 187 helped changed all that. But they were coming from New York. Purple states are also often referred to as "battleground" states. As blue voters leave that's helped turn states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan redder. Of all of the states colored red on the map, Donald Trump’s margin of victory was the smallest in North Carolina. Accompanying the pandemic and its ensuing consequences is social chaos, notably the Black Lives Matter protests sweeping the country. Change is coming. It’s possible that Pennsylvania will change from blue to purple in coming years and that Iowa and Ohio will switch from purple to red. Those five states have added almost six million domestic migrants since 2000. In sum, the Colorado Model is one of the Left’s most effective stratagems that was “built” to turn “red states” into “blue states” in a very short period (with the exception, perhaps, of … According to McKee and Teigen, "a 10 percent increase in newcomers from the Northeast to a southern county increases the Democratic presidential vote in 2008–2012 by approximately five percentage points." Tate, Kristin Best Price: $3.47 Buy New $14.50 (as of 05:56 EST - Details) I’ll let Kristin Tate state the last words on this topic of red or blue: “The decline of liberal cities in blue states during a crisis is perhaps the clearest judgment on a raft of poor tax and regulatory policies. Could Joe Biden turn these red states blue? Beto O'Rourke lost in 2018 in his Texas to his rival Sen. Ted Cruz, but it was the closest Senate election in Texas since 1978. In addition, polls show Democratic Governor Roy Cooper up by eight points over challenger Dan Forest. The new South is going to turn blue in 2020's and Democrats will consolidate their gains in the 2030's. In 2018, the Supreme Court split along partisan lines in upholding most of the 2013 redistricting in Texas, although it did find one district was the result of racial gerrymandering. Texas, which has sided with Republican presidents for four decades, stands out as the most prominent one that's undergoing the shift. In 2000 President George W. Bush got 21 more percentage points in Texas than Senator Al Gore. Plus, following the expansion efforts of Apple, Amazon and Google in Austin, the most vibrant, liberal city in conservative Texas, Tesla's inroads are expected to inject more Democratic blood. It's the same story for California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico. The governors of Texas, Florida and Georgia, African Americans who are disproportionately afflicted by the coronavirus pandemic. The governors of Texas, Florida and Georgia have drawn controversy for their confusing patchwork of coronavirus policies. Local economies have taken serious hits due to shutdowns of restaurants and entertainment venues. Non-Hispanic whites will drop from 45 percent of the population to 28 percent by 2050. Texas, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Florida could go red or blue, and pundits could offer a plausible narrative to explain either outcome. States that used to … We confirmed that using numbers provided by Brooking's Frey. Commentary: Why so many red states are turning blue. Since 1952, Arizona has voted for Republican candidates in all but one presidential election. In Rae's analysis, Joe Biden, a relatively conservative Democrat, looks to be a more "middle-of-the-road" choice. The country’s blue state exodus is shaking up demographics in red states that are serving as landing spots. No one knows how these factors will affect turnout, which way independent voters will go or whether something else will happen before then that will change the equation yet again. In the 2000's, the median age of migrants to Florida and South Carolina has been 10 to 15 years older than those to Virginia and Georgia. In other words: the Democrats long nightmare in the Sun Belt may be, at last, coming to an end, These states aren't turning blue because conservatives are suddenly discovering their inner AOC. Talking of Trump's solid voter base, if the economy hadn't been rocked by the virus, Trump would still probably have the confidence in winning these voters rather than really facing an uphill struggle, according to Rae. There's a good chance some of those employees will come from blue states. HENDRIX: I would argue that it’s not so clear that out migration from blue states to red states will necessarily turn those red states blue. For example, Texas isn't blue, yet, but it's getting bluer. In 2018, 274,000 people moved in and 180,000 people moved out, for a gain of 94,000. Within two presidential election cycles, much of the south will be blue. Every U.S. election in recent years has upended convention. Texas’s senior senator, John Cornyn, admitted a few weeks later that “Texas is no longer a reliably red state.” Texas’s reliable redness, however, is a product of design more than ideology. Between 2000 and 2016, North Carolina added a million newcomers. Texas got only 40 percent of its migrants from the Northeast and the Midwest, while Georgia got 66 percent of their migrants from those regions, North Carolina 73 percent, South Carolina 75 percent, and Florida a whopping 81 percent. But economic discontent from COVID-19 doesn't entirely explain the red-to-blue shift. Europe Fears Coronavirus Second Wave Amid Spikes in Spain, France, Germany, A Look Inside the Luxury Bunker Built by Doomsday Preppers for the Apocalyp, Stacey Abrams: "The Sun Belt expansion is what will drive the next thirty years of elections.". Rather they're more likely to move to what University of New Hampshire professor Kenneth Johnson calls "recreational" counties. It's changing the nation's electoral map. President Donald Trump managed to edge Hillary Clinton by winning the closely contested swing states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Perhaps Republicans were right to worry about migrant caravans in 2018. They have redistricted twice since, all of which have been challenged in the courts. The pandemic has hit the country hard, but some regions have had it rougher than others. Which states are considered red and which are blue? People are moving to southern states to find jobs. 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